America weighs in on potential scenarios if Donald Trump loses election

America weighs in on potential scenarios if Donald Trump loses election

Republican presidential nominee and former US president Donald Trump gestures during a rally in Novi, Michigan, US on October 26, 2024. — Reuters
Republican presidential nominee and former US president Donald Trump gestures during a rally in Novi, Michigan, US on October 26, 2024. — Reuters

As the 2024 United States presidential election approaches, yhe global attention is primarily focused on the potential victory of former president Donald Trump in the race to the White House on November 5.

However, many Americans including Trump's critics are increasingly anxious about the possibilty of his defeat.

The 78-year-old Republican presidential candidate remains in a tight race against Democratic rival Kamala Harris, yet he has never accepted the legitimacy of his past electoral losses, AFP reported.

His continued denialism has deeply polarised the country raises concerns about the integrity of democratic processes.

"Should he lose this year, I have no doubt that he will claim fraud, leave no stone unturned to reverse the results, and refuse to attend Harris's inauguration," said Donald Nieman, a political analyst at Binghamton University in New York state.

"He's not only a sore loser, he's someone who will never admit he lost."

Trump's rap sheet demonstrates that it is not beyond him to try to cheat in elections.

He has 34 felony convictions for a scandal involving covered-up payments to silence an adult film star he feared was about to wreck his 2016 campaign with a salacious story about a one night stand.

And he has been indicted twice and impeached twice over alleged efforts to steal or otherwise cheat in the 2020 election, which he still has not conceded.

Rejected by the American people four years ago, Trump and his allies flooded the zone with bogus claims of irregularities and fraud.

Violence or civil war?

Trump's critics worry about a repeat of the deadly January 6 riot which was carried out by an angry mob summoned to Washington by Trump, pumped up by his claims of voter fraud and sent marching on the Capitol.

Especially since he's at it again.

"If I lose, I'll tell you what, it's possible because they cheat. That's the only way we're going to lose — because they cheat," Trump told rally-goers in Michigan last month.

Trump has been dusting off the same baseless concerns over the legitimacy of vote counts, foreigners voting, the reliability of mail-in ballots and much else.

The ex-president and his allies set the stage for the 2021 riot through legal means — more than 60 lawsuits largely complaining about the way state and local authorities had changed voting rules to take account of a raging pandemic.

But they lost every substantive case, with judges ruling that objections to election organisation should have been lodged long before the first ballot was cast.

Republicans hit the ground running this time around, filing more than 100 lawsuits before early voting began about every aspect of the election, from how Americans register and cast ballots to who can vote.

Many of the suits seek to limit access to the polls and most will be unresolved by Election Day, but experts say this plays into distrust over vote-counting that Trump and other conspiracy theorists have spent years exacerbating.

Almost two-thirds of Americans are anticipating post-election violence, a Scripps News/Ipsos poll out Thursday found, and most support using the military to quell unrest after polls open on November 5.

More than a quarter believe that civil war could break out, according to a new YouGov poll, with 12% saying they know someone who might take up arms if they thought Trump had been cheated.

The intelligence community raised concerns about the potential for bloodshed in a report on election threats from foreign actors that was declassified, redacted and released last week by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

"Foreign-driven or -amplified violent protests, violence, or physical threats... could challenge state and local officials' ability to conduct elements of the certification and Electoral College process," it said.

Security measures have been beefed up in Washington in anticipation of potential unrest, although analysts contacted by AFP saw a repeat of the 2021 insurrection in the capital as unlikely, with hundreds of subsequent prosecutions acting as a potent deterrent.

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